A mere two months ago when the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the source of Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. After Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard query to address. History, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing this season, while the positive results have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club that have strung together 10 in a row, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their star man to save the day with two crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge the club will encounter in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- The winger might become the player he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
